There are plenty of headlines these days calling for a housing market crash. But the truth is, they’re not telling the full story. Here’s what’s actually happening, and what the experts project for home prices over the next 5 years. And spoiler alert – it’s not a crash.

Yes, in some local markets, prices are flattening or even dipping slightly this year as more homes hit the market. That’s normal with rising inventory. But the bigger picture is what really matters, and it’s far less dramatic than what the doom-and-gloom headlines suggest. Here’s why.

Over 100 leading housing market experts were surveyed in the latest Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their collective forecast shows prices are projected to keep rising over the next 5 years, just at a slower, healthier pace than what we’ve seen more recently. And that kind of steady, sustainable growth should be one factor to help ease your fears about the years ahead (see graph below):

And if you take a look at how the various experts responded within the survey, they fall into three main categories: those that were most optimistic about the forecast, most pessimistic, and the overall average outlook.

Here’s what the breakdown shows:

• The average projection is about 3.3% price growth per year, through 2029.
• The optimists see growth closer to 5.0% per year.
• The pessimists still forecast about 1.3% growth per year.

Do they all agree on the same number? Of course not. But here’s the key takeaway: not one expert group is calling for a major national decline or a crash. Instead, they expect home prices to rise at a steady, more sustainable pace.

That’s much healthier for the market – and for you. Yes, some areas may see prices hold relatively flat or dip a bit in the short term, especially where inventory is on the rise. Others may appreciate faster than the national average because there are still fewer homes for sale than there are buyers trying to purchase them. But overall, more moderate price growth is cooling the rapid spikes we saw during the frenzy of the past few years.

And remember, even the most conservative experts still project prices will rise over the course of the next 5 years. That’s also because foreclosures are low, lending standards are in check, and homeowners have near record equity to boost the stability of the market. Together, those factors help prevent a wave of forced sales, like the kind that could drag prices down. So, if you’re waiting for a significant crash before you buy, you might be waiting quite a long time.

If you’ve been on the fence about your plans, now’s the time to get clarity. The market isn’t heading for a crash. It’s on track for steady, slow, long-term growth overall, with some regional ups and downs along the way.

Want to know what that means for our neighborhood? Because national trends set the tone, but what really matters is what’s happening in your zip code. Let’s have a quick conversation so you can see exactly what our local data means for you.

There’s one big mistake you need to avoid when you sell your house this year: setting your price too high. It might seem like overpricing gives you room to negotiate or could really boost your profit, but the reality is, it usually backfires.

In fact, Realtor.com says almost 20% of sellers — that’s one in five — have to reduce their price to get their house sold. And you don’t want to be one of them. Here’s why starting too high can lead to trouble, and how to avoid it.

Overpricing Pushes Buyers Away

With mortgage rates and home prices where they are right now, buyers are already stretching their budgets to make a move. So, when they see a house that’s priced too high, they’re not thinking, “I can negotiate.” They’re more likely to think, “next” and skip over your house entirely. An article from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Some sellers are pricing their homes higher than ever just because they can, but this may drive away serious buyers . . .”

And if they skip over your listing, you’ll miss out on the chance to get them through the door. That’s the last thing you want because fewer showings mean fewer chances to receive an offer.

The Longer Your House Sits, the More Skeptical Buyers Will Get

Here’s the other issue. An overpriced house tends to sit on the market longer. And the longer a house lingers, the more buyers start to wonder what’s wrong with it. Is there a problem with the house itself? Are you difficult to work with? Even if the only issue is the price, that extra time creates doubt. As U.S. News says:

“. . . setting an unrealistically high price with the idea that you can come down later doesn’t work in real estate . . . A home that’s overpriced in the beginning tends to stay on the market longer, even after the price is cut, because buyers think there must be something wrong with it.”

At that point, you’ll have no choice but to lower your price to drum up interest. But that price reduction comes with its own downside: buyers may see it as another red flag, that there’s an issue with the house.

The Key To Finding the Right Price for Your House

So, what’s the secret to avoiding all these headaches? It’s simple. Work with a local real estate agent who knows the market inside and out, and who’s going to be honest with you about how you should price your house.

You don’t want to partner with someone who just agrees to whatever number you throw out there. That’s not an expert who’s going to get you the best results.

You want an agent who recommends a price based on their expertise. The right agent will use real-time data from your local market to help you land on a price that makes sense — one that grabs attention, attracts buyers, and still helps you walk away with a great return. Someone who has been there and done that – and done it well. That’s the agent you want to work with.

Remember, if the price isn’t compelling, it’s not selling. Instead of shooting too high and scaring off buyers, work with a local agent who knows how to price it right.

Let’s team up and make sure your house hits the market with the right price, gets noticed, and gets sold.